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Mathematicians suggest the “37% rule” for life’s biggest decisions

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Summary

Mathematicians have suggested the "37% rule" for making life's biggest decisions. This rule suggests that when making a decision from 100 different options, you should sample and discard the first 37. This is a calibration period during which you identify what works and what does not and choose the best option to keep. The article also discusses the "explore/exploit tradeoff" which asks whether you should go with a guaranteed win or risk going somewhere else for an unknown outcome. This tradeoff is related to how curious or risk-seeking a person is and the article suggests that the most advantageous behavior is found in balance between the two. Ultimately, the 37% rule is a good starting point for making life decisions but when it comes to relationships, one date is never enough to truly know someone's character.

Q&As

What is the “37% rule” and how is it used to make life’s biggest decisions?
The “37% rule” is a mathematical solution to the optimal stopping problem, which suggests that when making a decision from 100 different options, one should sample and discard the first 37. This is a calibration period during which one can identify what works and what does not.

How does the “explore/exploit” tradeoff factor into the decision-making process?
The “explore/exploit” tradeoff asks whether one should go with a guaranteed “win” (the exploit) or risk going somewhere else for an unknown outcome (explore). The degree to which someone will explore or exploit will depend on a host of factors, and it ties in with how curious or risk-seeking they are.

What factors determine whether someone is more explorative or exploitative?
Factors that determine whether someone is more explorative or exploitative include age, occupation, and risk-seeking behavior.

How can mathematics and psychology both be used to make life decisions?
Mathematics can be used to provide an answer to the “optimal stopping problem”, while psychology can be used to understand how humans actually behave when making decisions.

What are the potential drawbacks of using the “37% rule” to make decisions?
The potential drawbacks of using the “37% rule” to make decisions include the fact that humans are not rational probability-crunching machines, and that one date is never enough to reveal someone’s true character. Additionally, the “37% rule” does not take into account the fact that the other person must also accept the decision.

AI Comments

👍 This article is a great insight into the mathematical and psychological aspects of life's biggest decisions. The 37% rule is a great way to balance exploration and exploitation when making decisions.

👎 This article is too generalized and doesn't take into account individual differences. The 37% rule may not be applicable in all situations and could lead to making poor decisions.

AI Discussion

Me: It's about the 37% rule for life's biggest decisions. Basically, the article says that if you have a decision to make, you should sample and discard the first 37% of options in order to maximize your chances of making the best decision.

Me: It makes sense, but it's also important to remember that humans aren't always rational when it comes to making decisions. The article talks about the exploration/exploitation tradeoff. We don't always know whether it's better to explore our options and take a risk or to stick to what we know.

Friend: That's true. I think it's important to balance the 37% rule with our own intuition. It's important to be open to exploring new options, but it's also important to recognize when something is a sure thing.

Action items

Take the explore/exploit quiz to determine your own tendencies when making decisions.
Research the 37% rule and apply it to your own life decisions.
Try to find a balance between exploring and exploiting when making decisions.

Technical terms

Optimal Stopping Problem: A mathematical problem that involves maximizing probabilities when making a decision from a set of options.
37% Rule: A rule that suggests that when making a decision from a set of 100 options, you should sample and discard the first 37.
Exploit/Explore Tradeoff: A concept in psychology and economics that asks whether you should go with a guaranteed “win” (the exploit) or risk going somewhere else for an unknown outcome (explore).
Curiosity: The degree to which someone will explore or exploit will depend on how curious or risk-seeking they are.
Habit Formation: The process of forming a habit or behavior pattern through repetition and reinforcement.
Jack of All Trades, Master of None: A phrase used to describe someone who is competent in many areas but does not excel in any one area.