Raw Text

By Josh Smith , Adolfo Arranz , Jitesh Chowdhury and Sudev Kiyada

The rival space programmes of Seoul and Pyongyang have had an eventful year: on May 25, South Korea for the first time used an indigenous launch vehicle to place a mission-capable satellite in orbit, and a few days later, North Korea launched a new rocket design from a new facility.

Although the North Korean Chollima-1 rocket failed, analysts expect the country to push forward with further tests and eventually make good on its vow to place spy satellites in orbit.

South Korea is testing both solid- and liquid-fuelled launch vehicles, with lofty ambitions for 6G wireless networks, spy satellites, and even lunar probes.

Both countries’ programmes lag behind those of their neighbours Japan and China, and both have linked rockets to national pride, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un calling space “a demonstration of the overall national power” and former South Korean President Moon Jae-in saying the first launch of the Nuri rocket in 2021 heralded the approach of a “'Korea Space Age”.

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SOUTH KOREA’S LAUNCH VEHICLES

South Korea's allies in Washington have long been wary of Seoul's rocket development, fearing the programmes could develop ballistic missiles that would inflame tensions with the North.

In the 1970s, South Korea agreed to restrict the range of its surface-to-surface missiles in return for technology from the United States. The restrictions were eased over the years, and removed in 2021.

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After failing to reach a deal with U.S. suppliers, South Korea in 2004 bought modified liquid-fuelled Angara boosters from Russia for the first stage of its Korea Space Launch Vehicle (KSLV) I, also known as the Naro 1. Domestic technology was used in the Naro 1's solid-fuelled second stage and the payload fairing.

Problems plagued the Naro 1: Its first launch in 2009 ended in failure when the payload fairing malfunctioned, and the second flight in 2010 exploded a few minutes after liftoff. It was not until 2013 that it became the first South Korean rocket to place a satellite in orbit.

The country's latest satellite launch vehicle (SLV), the liquid-fuelled KSLV II or Nuri, is a three-stage rocket built entirely in South Korea.

"The earlier KSLV rocket was a bit of a chimera, with the Russian liquid first stage and the little solid Korean second stage," said Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer and astrophysicist at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. "The newer Nuri rocket is much more mainstream."

The Nuri was first launched in October 2021, successfully lifting off but failing to place a dummy satellite into orbit. It has been launched twice since then; the latest flight on May 25 placed eight satellites in orbit.

With a launch mass of about 200 tons, the Nuri is “quite big” relative to North Korean designs, said Markus Schiller, a Europe-based missile expert.

South Korean officials say the Nuri is designed to put 1.5-tonne payloads into low earth orbit at an altitude of 600 to 800 km (370 to 500 miles).

Last year South Korea's military conducted the first tests of an indigenous solid-fuelled rocket designed to put small satellites into low Earth orbit for surveillance. Such smaller, solid-fuelled launch vehicles are seen as simpler and more cost-effective to launch compared with liquid-fuelled rockets.

South Korea has put several satellites in orbit using foreign launchers. The military paid Elon Musk’s SpaceX to launch its first communications satellite in 2020, for example, and the U.S. company will launch Seoul’s first spy satellite this year.

Eventually South Korea plans to field a network of satellites for a regional positioning system, next-generation communications, and military reconnaissance.

NORTH KOREA’S LAUNCH VEHICLES

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North Korea began space development with the Taepodong-1, a three-stage, liquid-fuelled booster. During its first launch in 1998, the rocket failed late in flight, Schiller noted, and “instead of giving it another shot, the whole design never appeared again”.

That approach is unusual compared with that of other countries, Schiller said.

“They are re-inventing the wheel with every launcher, and we do not see many static engine tests,” he said.

The next launcher design, the Unha, featured a cluster of engines that analysts say were derived from the Soviet-era Scud missile. Its upper stage appears related to the Iranian Safir rocket, according to Western analysts. When South Korea gathered Unha debris in 2012, it found components from Britain, Switzerland, the United States, China, and the former Soviet Union.

Despite two relatively successful flights, the Unha appears to have been shelved in favor of the latest system.

“North Korea seems to be focused on the Chollima-1,” Schiller said. “As was the case with the switch from the Taepodong-1 to the Unha, the designs have nothing in common.”

Although the Unha could have been tipped with a warhead, its design and performance shows it was "designed as a satellite launcher," Schiller and analyst Robert Schmucker said in a report for the Federation of American Scientists after the last Unha launch in 2016.

Since then, North Korea has forged ahead with intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development, test firing multiple huge ICBMs that appear to be contributing technology to the country's space programme.

The Chollima-1 seems to be a new design and most likely uses the dual-nozzle liquid-fuelled engines developed for Pyongyang’s Hwasong-15 ICBM, analysts said. Some experts say that engine is derived from the Soviet RD-250 family.

"The earlier SLVs seem to have had some commonality with Iranian vehicles, but the new Chollima seems to be its own thing," McDowell said.

The Chollima-1 failed during its first launch on May 31. It lifted off successfully but its second stage failed to start, state media reported, and it crashed into the Yellow Sea. It appears to be a medium-lift launcher for delivering small satellites to low earth orbit. The launcher is slightly smaller than the South’s new Nuri, possibly with a launch mass of about 150 tons, Schiller said.

Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace estimated the rocket was most likely carrying a satellite payload of 200 to 300 kilogrammes.

South Korea has recovered some of the Chollima-1 wreckage - including, for the first time, parts of a satellite - but has not released detailed findings. Seoul said the satellite had little military value.

Since 1998 North Korea has launched five satellites, of which two made it into orbit. International observers said one satellite appeared to be under control, but there was lingering debate over whether it had sent any transmissions.

The North’s latest push suggests it is serious about deploying operational satellites, McDowell said.

"The new phase of their program is clearly moving from an experimental 'get something into orbit' phase to a phase in which operational satellites will be in play,” he said. “For now, low orbit recon satellites, but eventually I expect them to launch geostationary communications satellites too."

SPACE CENTRES

Russia also helped South Korea build its Naro Space Center while training and launching the first South Korean astronaut on a mission to the International Space Station.

The center, perched on cliffs overlooking the sea on Oenaro Island on South Korea’s southern coast, opened in 2009 and has expanded in recent years to keep up with the country’s growing space programme.

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According to the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI), the centre houses a launch pad system, satellite test building, vehicle assembly building, solid motor building, and launch control building, as well as tracking radar, a telemetry reception system, a launch control system, an optical system, and a weather station.

South Korea built a second, larger launch pad at Naro to accommodate the Nuri.

North Korea built its first satellite launching facility at the eastern site of Tonghae in 1985, firing several early rockets and missiles there. In the 1990s construction was seen at Sohae, on North Korea’s west coast, and by 2011 the new site was complete.

The Sohae Satellite Launching Station is more sophisticated than Tonghae, and was used to launch the Unha rockets.

In his first summit with former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un promised to dismantle Sohae, but as talks stalled, North Korea expanded the site.

North Korea is unique among other space powers in that it goes to great lengths to disguise launch preparations at its ostensibly civilian space ports, including building special railways and structures to hide the transportation and assembly of the rockets, said Dave Schmerler, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS).

“Sohae was configured to suppress a lot of the pre-launch signatures,” he said. “You can't see anything unless they do it during the day and they want you to see it - and even then everything is covered.”

The Chollima-1 was launched from a new pad at Sohae built in just over a month, underscoring the political importance of the launch and the overall satellite program, 38 North, a U.S.-based site that monitors North Korea, said in a June 7 report.

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The report noted that the launch may have been rushed to keep up with developments in South Korea.

Modifications at the main Sohae launch pad suggest North Korea may roll out another, larger SLV, the report said.

“The speed at which North Korea built the new coastal launch pad for the Chollima-1 at Sohae is astonishing,” Schiller said. “This indicates they have the means to do that, and impressive resources at hand.”

FLIGHT PATHS

According to pre-launch briefing slides, Nuri’s flight paths take it southeast from its launch site on the south coast of the Korean peninsula, threading its way over the ocean on a trajectory aimed at avoiding Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and other major land masses.

North Korea faces the same challenges, and must avoid flying over South Korea.

“Compared to most space launching countries, North Korea doesn't have a good long area of ocean to launch over, so it has to use some inefficient trajectories to get something to orbit without having lower stages fall on Japan, South Korea or China,” McDowell said.

During the failed Chollima-1 launch, authorities in Seoul and the Japanese island of Okinawa, among other locations, warned residents to take shelter in case of falling debris. No debris was reported to have landed near those areas.

Countries that launch rockets typically notify international aviation and maritime regulators of the vehicle’s flight path, and possible zones where first or second stages may fall.

Ahead of the May Chollima-1 launch North Korea notified Japan and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) of its plan to launch a satellite between May 31 and June 11.

The IMO later adopted its first-ever resolution condemning North Korean tests as a threat to the safety of international navigation, and Pyongyang responded by suggesting it may not give notice ahead of future satellite launches.

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AIMING HIGHER

“We can expect multiple launches over the next several years once the Chollima-1’s problems are resolved,” 38 North said of North Korea’s programme.

The next flight of South Korea’s Nuri is expected in 2025, while the country plans to use the follow-on KSLV-III project as the mainstay of its spaceflight programme by 2030.

“The road from South Korea to space has opened now,” President Yoon Suk Yeol said after the 2022 Nuri launch. “It’s the fruit of the difficult challenges of the past 30 years. Now, our Korean people and our young people’s dream and hope will reach toward space.”

Note

Data as of July 20, 2023.

Sources

Jonathan McDowell Space Report; Dave Schmerler, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Gunter’s Space Page; Yonhap News Agency; ESA's eoPortal; 38north.org; Maxar;

Edited by

Gerry Doyle and Anand Katakam

Single Line Text

By Josh Smith , Adolfo Arranz , Jitesh Chowdhury and Sudev Kiyada. The rival space programmes of Seoul and Pyongyang have had an eventful year: on May 25, South Korea for the first time used an indigenous launch vehicle to place a mission-capable satellite in orbit, and a few days later, North Korea launched a new rocket design from a new facility. Although the North Korean Chollima-1 rocket failed, analysts expect the country to push forward with further tests and eventually make good on its vow to place spy satellites in orbit. South Korea is testing both solid- and liquid-fuelled launch vehicles, with lofty ambitions for 6G wireless networks, spy satellites, and even lunar probes. Both countries’ programmes lag behind those of their neighbours Japan and China, and both have linked rockets to national pride, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un calling space “a demonstration of the overall national power” and former South Korean President Moon Jae-in saying the first launch of the Nuri rocket in 2021 heralded the approach of a “'Korea Space Age”. Add a description of the graphic for screen readers. This is invisible on the page. SOUTH KOREA’S LAUNCH VEHICLES. South Korea's allies in Washington have long been wary of Seoul's rocket development, fearing the programmes could develop ballistic missiles that would inflame tensions with the North. In the 1970s, South Korea agreed to restrict the range of its surface-to-surface missiles in return for technology from the United States. The restrictions were eased over the years, and removed in 2021. Add a description of the graphic for screen readers. This is invisible on the page. After failing to reach a deal with U.S. suppliers, South Korea in 2004 bought modified liquid-fuelled Angara boosters from Russia for the first stage of its Korea Space Launch Vehicle (KSLV) I, also known as the Naro 1. Domestic technology was used in the Naro 1's solid-fuelled second stage and the payload fairing. Problems plagued the Naro 1: Its first launch in 2009 ended in failure when the payload fairing malfunctioned, and the second flight in 2010 exploded a few minutes after liftoff. It was not until 2013 that it became the first South Korean rocket to place a satellite in orbit. The country's latest satellite launch vehicle (SLV), the liquid-fuelled KSLV II or Nuri, is a three-stage rocket built entirely in South Korea. "The earlier KSLV rocket was a bit of a chimera, with the Russian liquid first stage and the little solid Korean second stage," said Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer and astrophysicist at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. "The newer Nuri rocket is much more mainstream." The Nuri was first launched in October 2021, successfully lifting off but failing to place a dummy satellite into orbit. It has been launched twice since then; the latest flight on May 25 placed eight satellites in orbit. With a launch mass of about 200 tons, the Nuri is “quite big” relative to North Korean designs, said Markus Schiller, a Europe-based missile expert. South Korean officials say the Nuri is designed to put 1.5-tonne payloads into low earth orbit at an altitude of 600 to 800 km (370 to 500 miles). Last year South Korea's military conducted the first tests of an indigenous solid-fuelled rocket designed to put small satellites into low Earth orbit for surveillance. Such smaller, solid-fuelled launch vehicles are seen as simpler and more cost-effective to launch compared with liquid-fuelled rockets. South Korea has put several satellites in orbit using foreign launchers. The military paid Elon Musk’s SpaceX to launch its first communications satellite in 2020, for example, and the U.S. company will launch Seoul’s first spy satellite this year. Eventually South Korea plans to field a network of satellites for a regional positioning system, next-generation communications, and military reconnaissance. NORTH KOREA’S LAUNCH VEHICLES. Add a description of the graphic for screen readers. This is invisible on the page. North Korea began space development with the Taepodong-1, a three-stage, liquid-fuelled booster. During its first launch in 1998, the rocket failed late in flight, Schiller noted, and “instead of giving it another shot, the whole design never appeared again”. That approach is unusual compared with that of other countries, Schiller said. “They are re-inventing the wheel with every launcher, and we do not see many static engine tests,” he said. The next launcher design, the Unha, featured a cluster of engines that analysts say were derived from the Soviet-era Scud missile. Its upper stage appears related to the Iranian Safir rocket, according to Western analysts. When South Korea gathered Unha debris in 2012, it found components from Britain, Switzerland, the United States, China, and the former Soviet Union. Despite two relatively successful flights, the Unha appears to have been shelved in favor of the latest system. “North Korea seems to be focused on the Chollima-1,” Schiller said. “As was the case with the switch from the Taepodong-1 to the Unha, the designs have nothing in common.” Although the Unha could have been tipped with a warhead, its design and performance shows it was "designed as a satellite launcher," Schiller and analyst Robert Schmucker said in a report for the Federation of American Scientists after the last Unha launch in 2016. Since then, North Korea has forged ahead with intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development, test firing multiple huge ICBMs that appear to be contributing technology to the country's space programme. The Chollima-1 seems to be a new design and most likely uses the dual-nozzle liquid-fuelled engines developed for Pyongyang’s Hwasong-15 ICBM, analysts said. Some experts say that engine is derived from the Soviet RD-250 family. "The earlier SLVs seem to have had some commonality with Iranian vehicles, but the new Chollima seems to be its own thing," McDowell said. The Chollima-1 failed during its first launch on May 31. It lifted off successfully but its second stage failed to start, state media reported, and it crashed into the Yellow Sea. It appears to be a medium-lift launcher for delivering small satellites to low earth orbit. The launcher is slightly smaller than the South’s new Nuri, possibly with a launch mass of about 150 tons, Schiller said. Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace estimated the rocket was most likely carrying a satellite payload of 200 to 300 kilogrammes. South Korea has recovered some of the Chollima-1 wreckage - including, for the first time, parts of a satellite - but has not released detailed findings. Seoul said the satellite had little military value. Since 1998 North Korea has launched five satellites, of which two made it into orbit. International observers said one satellite appeared to be under control, but there was lingering debate over whether it had sent any transmissions. The North’s latest push suggests it is serious about deploying operational satellites, McDowell said. "The new phase of their program is clearly moving from an experimental 'get something into orbit' phase to a phase in which operational satellites will be in play,” he said. “For now, low orbit recon satellites, but eventually I expect them to launch geostationary communications satellites too." SPACE CENTRES. Russia also helped South Korea build its Naro Space Center while training and launching the first South Korean astronaut on a mission to the International Space Station. The center, perched on cliffs overlooking the sea on Oenaro Island on South Korea’s southern coast, opened in 2009 and has expanded in recent years to keep up with the country’s growing space programme. Add a description of the graphic for screen readers. This is invisible on the page. According to the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI), the centre houses a launch pad system, satellite test building, vehicle assembly building, solid motor building, and launch control building, as well as tracking radar, a telemetry reception system, a launch control system, an optical system, and a weather station. South Korea built a second, larger launch pad at Naro to accommodate the Nuri. North Korea built its first satellite launching facility at the eastern site of Tonghae in 1985, firing several early rockets and missiles there. In the 1990s construction was seen at Sohae, on North Korea’s west coast, and by 2011 the new site was complete. The Sohae Satellite Launching Station is more sophisticated than Tonghae, and was used to launch the Unha rockets. In his first summit with former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un promised to dismantle Sohae, but as talks stalled, North Korea expanded the site. North Korea is unique among other space powers in that it goes to great lengths to disguise launch preparations at its ostensibly civilian space ports, including building special railways and structures to hide the transportation and assembly of the rockets, said Dave Schmerler, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). “Sohae was configured to suppress a lot of the pre-launch signatures,” he said. “You can't see anything unless they do it during the day and they want you to see it - and even then everything is covered.” The Chollima-1 was launched from a new pad at Sohae built in just over a month, underscoring the political importance of the launch and the overall satellite program, 38 North, a U.S.-based site that monitors North Korea, said in a June 7 report. Add a description of the graphic for screen readers. This is invisible on the page. The report noted that the launch may have been rushed to keep up with developments in South Korea. Modifications at the main Sohae launch pad suggest North Korea may roll out another, larger SLV, the report said. “The speed at which North Korea built the new coastal launch pad for the Chollima-1 at Sohae is astonishing,” Schiller said. “This indicates they have the means to do that, and impressive resources at hand.” FLIGHT PATHS. According to pre-launch briefing slides, Nuri’s flight paths take it southeast from its launch site on the south coast of the Korean peninsula, threading its way over the ocean on a trajectory aimed at avoiding Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and other major land masses. North Korea faces the same challenges, and must avoid flying over South Korea. “Compared to most space launching countries, North Korea doesn't have a good long area of ocean to launch over, so it has to use some inefficient trajectories to get something to orbit without having lower stages fall on Japan, South Korea or China,” McDowell said. During the failed Chollima-1 launch, authorities in Seoul and the Japanese island of Okinawa, among other locations, warned residents to take shelter in case of falling debris. No debris was reported to have landed near those areas. Countries that launch rockets typically notify international aviation and maritime regulators of the vehicle’s flight path, and possible zones where first or second stages may fall. Ahead of the May Chollima-1 launch North Korea notified Japan and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) of its plan to launch a satellite between May 31 and June 11. The IMO later adopted its first-ever resolution condemning North Korean tests as a threat to the safety of international navigation, and Pyongyang responded by suggesting it may not give notice ahead of future satellite launches. Add a description of the graphic for screen readers. This is invisible on the page. AIMING HIGHER. “We can expect multiple launches over the next several years once the Chollima-1’s problems are resolved,” 38 North said of North Korea’s programme. The next flight of South Korea’s Nuri is expected in 2025, while the country plans to use the follow-on KSLV-III project as the mainstay of its spaceflight programme by 2030. “The road from South Korea to space has opened now,” President Yoon Suk Yeol said after the 2022 Nuri launch. “It’s the fruit of the difficult challenges of the past 30 years. Now, our Korean people and our young people’s dream and hope will reach toward space.” Note. Data as of July 20, 2023. Sources. Jonathan McDowell Space Report; Dave Schmerler, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Gunter’s Space Page; Yonhap News Agency; ESA's eoPortal; 38north.org; Maxar; Edited by. Gerry Doyle and Anand Katakam.